This story was originally published in Alberta Native News.

Polling data from First Nations reserves and Métis settlements show that Indigenous people voted overwhelmingly and disproportionately in favour of Alberta remaining in Canada in the province’s Oct. 19 referendum.

Ninety-seven per cent of voters at polling stations on or near reserves across Treaties 6, 7 and 8 voted against proceeding with a binding vote on Alberta independence, according to the dataset, which shows a total of 11,234 on-reserve votes for remain and 329 votes for a secession referendum.

The sample size for the Métis settlements is smaller, but shows 976 votes for remain and 88 for an independence referendum, representing a 92 per cent victory for remain.

Province-wide, remain received 75 per cent of more than two million votes cast, according to unofficial Elections Alberta results.

Matthew Wildcat, the director of Indigenous governance at the University of Alberta’s Faculty of Native Studies, compiled the data by going through Elections Alberta’s poll-by-poll breakdown, identifying stations in which the “vast majority” of voters would be Indigenous, given their proximity to reserves and settlements.

He told Alberta Native News that it’s the closest proxy to determining how First Nations and Métis people voted on the independence question, since it’s impossible to know how many Indigenous voters voted by advance ballot or at off-reserve polling stations.

“The main takeaway for me is that Indigenous Peoples have a consensus opinion on the question of Alberta separation,” said Wildcat.

“I use the term ‘consensus’ very deliberately. I know it’s not 100 per cent, but I’m using it from the standpoint of what I would call Cree political traditions around consensus.”

In Cree political thought, Wildcat explained, consensus is not necessarily unanimous, but occurs when “an overwhelming viewpoint starts to emerge on something” and those who disagree “acquiesce to the larger group.”

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His data includes results from 60 polling stations across 35 First Nations, as well as seven polling stations across six Métis settlements. These polling stations were located in 14 rural ridings, many of which had relatively low votes in favour of remain.

He cautioned that the numbers aren’t yet exhaustive and that there could be polling stations that he missed, particularly on the two Métis settlements that aren’t included in the dataset.

But when it comes to First Nations, not every band offered polling stations on reserve, given the history of First Nations members being forced to give up their status in order to vote.

“Voting in Canadian elections has long been viewed with a great deal of suspicion,” said Wildcat.

There were likely more than double the number of off-reserve Indigenous votes as on-reserve, he added.

Which Indigenous communities had the most voters?

Siksika First Nation in Treaty 7 was the First Nation with the highest on-reserve turnout, with 1,482 votes cast, of which 99 per cent supported remain.

The Blood Tribe had the second-highest on-reserve turnout, with 1,303 votes cast, of which 99 per cent were in favour of remaining in Canada.

The Blood Tribe and Siksika reserves are both part of the Cardston-Siksika riding, which overall saw just 56 per cent for remain, with 10,146 votes in favour and 7,734 votes against.

Between the Blood Tribe and Siksika polling stations, there was a total 2,744 votes for remain. Without those remain votes, the independence side would have narrowly won in that riding.

Little Red River Cree First Nation had the highest on-reserve turnout in Treaty 8 and third-highest overall, with 98 per cent of 1,077 votes cast in support of remain.

Little Red River’s reserve is part of the Peace River riding, which saw an overall vote of 57 per cent for remain.

In Treaty 6, Samson Cree Nation saw the highest turnout, with 717 votes cast. Of these votes, 98 per cent were in support of remain.

Samson Cree’s reserve is located in the Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin riding, which saw 65 per cent support for remain.

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Gift Lake was the Métis settlement with the most votes counted, with 235 in favour of remain and five supporting independence, representing 98 per cent for remain.

Gift Lake is located in the Lesser Slave Lake riding, which saw 70 per cent of voters support remain.

The Métis settlement with the second-highest turnout was Kikino, located in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche riding.

Eighty-seven per cent of the 199 votes at the Kikino Community Centre were cast in support of remaining in Canada, compared to 60 per cent of the riding’s total.

Wildcat is skeptical that the scale of mobilizing Indigenous voters against the independence referendum can be replicated in future federal and provincial elections.

“I suspect that it will be a blip, because motivating people was an enormous concern about Alberta potentially separating from Canada and how that would be inherently undermining of Indigenous peoples’ rights, political authority and political sovereignties,” he explained.

Wildcat sees some hope in initiatives like Indigenous Rock the Vote, which could produce “a gradual increase of Indigenous peoples’ participation in elections.”

However, he cautioned that the first-past-the-post electoral system, in which each riding elects its own MLA or MP, makes the mobilization of Indigenous voters around a common political objective more challenging.

“There’s probably not going to be a point at any time soon where First Nations people have the capacity to determine elections,” he said.

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Calgary book launch for Dark Phoenix

If you’re in Calgary, I’ll be hosting a very special book event next Friday, Nov. 6 at High Line Brewing at 7:30 p.m. The premier will be there (in cardboard cutout form).

I’m going to be recording a live podcast episode about Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith with my pals from Alberta Advantage, followed by a book signing and social.

I’ll also be selling copies for $25 a pop while supplies last.

The event is free and first come, first serve, so I would suggest getting there a bit early to beat the rush.

If you’re not in Calgary or can’t make it to the event, you can order the book directly from the publisher or to your local independent bookstore at the link below.

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They join the podcast to talk about why Gen-Z is organizing their workplaces, the corporate onslaught against unionization and how to fight back against AI-assisted workplace surveillance.

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• Fired Up About Unions (Between the Lines, 2026)

• Work Sucks, Let’s Unionize! Counterpunch

• Amazon used AI tool to track risk of unionization in Canadian warehouses, documents show, Globe and Mail

• Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith (Dundurn Press, 2026)

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Nate was the first interviewer to ask me whether the title is an X-Men reference. Tune in below to hear the answer!

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I wrote about the Alberta Prosperity Project’s referendum watch party and what I learned about the separatist movement’s future for Canada’s National Observer.

Friend of The Orchard hosted me on It’s Getting Pretty Late to discuss Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith, which you can purchase here.

Jake Landau is Getting Tired

Episode 59 - Oct 22, 2026 - Jeremy Appel

This podcast features an AI-generated transcript and subtitles, to provide accessibility to those with hearing impairments. This disclaimer, the headline, the subheader, and the description below are all written by myself, with my own keyboard, in my own voice, as is the case for every written article, audio piece, and video piece on…

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4 days ago · Jake Landau and Jeremy Appel

The Hatchet has released the second part of our conversation about Smith, which focuses on her punditry.

The Hatchet

Danielle Smith’s Hottest Takes

So today is the day of the Alberta referendum. And we just wanted to share with you some more of my conversation with Jeremy Appel…

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7 days ago · 9 likes · 1 comment · Arshy Mann

On R-Day, I went on CityNews Toronto to explain to the Laurentian Elites why Alberta was voting on 10 questions, including whether to have a future referendum on independence.

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It was a busy week for me in terms of media appearances, given the Oct. 13 release of Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith and Alberta’s impending series of referendums.

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I went on to speak to about the tightrope Danielle Smith is walking in the lead up to the Oct. 19 referendum.

The Hatchet

Can Danielle Smith Control Alberta Separatism?

Monday is the big day. The modern Alberta separatist movement has existed in one form or another since the 1980s. And Monday’s referendum represents the closest they’ve ever come to achieving their goal…

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11 days ago · 2 likes · Arshy Mann and Jeremy Appel

I appeared on Alberta Advantage to discuss the political calculations behind Alberta’s big dumb Oct. 19 referendum.

On the North State, I spoke to Scott Martin about how the Canadian media created Danielle Smith.

The Walrus published an excerpt from Dark Phoenix on its release day.

The Walrus

Danielle Smith Is Making Alberta Great for Trump

Jeff McIntosh / Canadian Press…

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12 days ago · 31 likes · The Walrus

Friend of The Orchard wrote a very generous review of Dark Phoenix for his newsletter.

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Danielle Smith, Moses Coady, Cannibalism

About Me | Instagram | Goodreads | Letterboxd…

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12 days ago · 12 likes · 3 comments · Adam's Notes

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On Monday, Albertans will be voting on whether the provincial government should “commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”

While there are nine other questions on the ballot, including five focused on restricting immigration that I’ve argued elsewhere pose the most immediate threat to Alberta’s social fabric, much of the national news media’s focus has been on the indirect independence question.

Yet there’s been scant press coverage of what exactly is the “legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”

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Even though consistent polling indicates that this question is heading for a resounding defeat on Oct. 19, federalist campaigners caution that the ultimate result will hinge on turnout.

The Writ

Alberta Referendum Poll Tracker

Updated October 9 - A strong majority of Albertans tell pollsters they will vote to remain in Canada, with 70% choosing to remain against an average of 22% who support beginning the process to hold a binding referendum on Alberta independence. With the removal of undecideds, support for independence is only 24…

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19 days ago · 23 likes · Éric Grenier

With that in mind, it’s worth asking what we might be getting ourselves into if turnout is depressed and the separatists are able to get the ball rolling on a binding independence vote.

Gerard Kennedy, a constitutional law professor at the University of Alberta, told The Orchard that there is no clear process for holding a binding secession referendum under the Canadian Constitution.

What the constitution does do is bind the provinces to federal legislation (although one of the four constitutional questions Albertans will be voting on is whether the province should collaborate with other provinces to give provincial laws supremacy in the event they conflict with federal legislation).

In the case of secession, the relevant federal law is the 2000 Clarity Act, which requires that an independence referendum have a question and outcome that reflects a clear majority of the popular will.

“Even if a clear majority on a clear question votes to leave, all that triggers is a duty to negotiate. It doesn't guarantee secession,” explained Kennedy.

He added that Premier Danielle Smith, who says she’s voting to remain in Canada, is “fishing” for a mandate to negotiate with the federal government and consult with First Nations “so that [if] we vote again, everyone can agree that the question was clear.”

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First Nations leaders in Alberta, however, are unanimously opposed to Alberta separatism, citing their existing Treaty relationship with the federal government.

Under the Clarity Act, the House of Commons is required to debate and approve the wording and majority threshold of any independence referendum.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has opted not to do so in this case, since the referendum isn’t directly asking about secession, which Kennedy said he regards as the appropriate approach at this point in the process.

“The stakes of the question are not that high legally,” explained Kennedy. “They may be very high politically, but legally … this is just the start of a very long process.”

In political terms, he added, Carney’s lack of intervention “lowers the temperature in the room.”

If the vote to have a future vote is successful, the ball is in the provincial government’s court to conduct negotiations that conform to the Clarity Act.

“The federal government doesn't have to do anything,” said Kennedy. “To be totally honest with you, there will probably be political pressure upon it to negotiate in good faith with Alberta, but it doesn't have to agree to anything in particular.”

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The act’s preamble refers to “negotiations that might lead to the secession of a province from Canada, and that could consequently entail the termination of citizenship and other rights that Canadian citizens resident in the province enjoy as full participants in Canada [emphasis added].”

Some of the separatist movement’s leading figures have identified the uncertainty of securing independence, even with a successful referendum, as a problem that will require the movement to build alliances with foreign powers, chief among them the U.S.

Dr. Dennis Modry, the disgraced heart surgeon and anti-vaxxer who co-founded the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project, has said that a successful secession vote should be immediately followed by a unilateral declaration of independence and international recognition from sympathetic foreign powers.

Separatist lawyer Jeff Rath has cited Argentina, Hungary and Israel as three “like-minded” governments that could recognize Alberta independence alongside the U.S.

Modry and Rath were part of a series of separatist delegations to the U.S. State Department last year, which offered the U.S. access to Alberta’s oil, water and pipelines in exchange for American assistance, per the Globe and Mail.

University of Calgary political theorist Barry Cooper, perhaps the leading separatist movement intellectual, has gone even further.

In an interview for my book, Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith, Cooper spoke candidly of separatists receiving “some help from the Americans.”

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When asked what he meant by that, Cooper was unequivocal — “the army” — before emphasizing that he doesn’t see the need for an invasion.

“We are so subordinate to the United States in military affairs that it wouldn’t take anything more than a quiet word,” said Cooper.

The Walrus

Danielle Smith Is Making Alberta Great for Trump

Jeff McIntosh / Canadian Press…

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14 days ago · 35 likes · The Walrus

Kennedy noted that while Albertans are being asked to pursue the legal route towards independence within the confines of Canadian jurisprudence, that isn’t the only conceivable pathway to independence.

He added:

If the Canadian government becomes unable to opt to exercise effective control in Alberta, and countries like the United States are recognizing an independent Alberta, and the Government of Alberta is operating as though it was an independent country, there comes to be a point where it looks like a duck, it walks like a duck, it quacks like a duck. We say that Alberta is legally an independent state. The way it became an independent state would be illegal, but at a certain point, de facto reality has got to make an appearance in this regard.

Kennedy emphasized that this would be a genuine risk if the referendum was a direct yes or no question on independence, which has been blocked by the Court of King’s Bench, pending an appeal by Alberta’s government and the separatist organization Stay Free Alberta.

“I don't think it's worth lighting our hair on fire about this, because I think the odds of a yes vote are so small. And because the question doesn't even purport to be a question on separation, I think it will be very difficult for this to happen,” said Kennedy.

“But is it something to be worried about for the future? Yeah, it absolutely is.”

Three quarters of Canadians support windfall tax on excess oil and gas profits from Iran War

A recent poll from Abacus Data shows that three-quarters of Canadians support a windfall tax on oil and gas companies’ excess profits from the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, and that these numbers are roughly consistent across every province.

Nationwide, 76% of Canadians say they either strongly support (41%) or moderately support (35%) it; meanwhile, just 11% either moderately oppose (7%) or strongly oppose (4%) it, and 14% say they don’t know.

Support is highest in the Atlantic provinces at 78% and lowest in Alberta, where it’s still 73%.

The youngest and oldest age groups were just as likely to support it, with 78% of those aged 18 to 29 and 60-plus expressing support. Seventy-six per cent of those aged 30 to 44 support the windfall tax, as do 71% of those aged 45 to 59.

The proposal has majority support across partisan affiliation, although self-identified Conservatives were least likely to express approval at 65%, compared to 83% of Liberals and 86% of New Democrats.

According to the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, by April 2026, oil and gas companies were on track to make $60 billion in excess profits from Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Rather than tax these profits, the federal government has suspended an excise tax on gasoline until 2027.

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The Abacus poll also asked participants about how that policy has impacted them, with two-thirds of Canadians saying it had no discernible impact on their finances, one-fifth saying that it improved their finances and 14% responding that it negatively impacted their finances.

The poll, which was commissioned by Elbows Up for Climate, was conducted via an online survey of 2,762 Canadian adults from Sept. 18 to 23.

Elbows Up for Climate co-chair David Miller, a former Toronto mayor, said in an Oct. 15 news release that these figures show that removing gas taxes has been ineffective in addressing affordability concerns, and that there is an appetite for more aggressive action.

“Now is a crucial moment for our country. We can’t succeed by tinkering at the edges with measures such as the excise fuel tax pause,” said Miller.

“Instead, we need nation-building policies — and we can pay for them with an excess profits tax from companies generating billions more in windfall profits.”

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He compellingly argues that replacing fossil fuel consumption with increased mining for precious metals, massive solar fields and wind farms, and speculative nuclear technology from the U.S. military-industrial complex isn’t going to save us.

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Related Links

• Bad Energy: The AI Hucksters, Rogue Lithium Extractors, and Wind Industrialists Who Are Selling Off Our Future (Haymarket Books, 2026)

• Killing the Planet to Save It, Counterpunch

• Green Energy Is Coming for the Desert, The Intercept

• Degrowth offers a path to a truly just global energy transition, Canada’s National Observer

• PM Mark Carney pledged to ‘Buy Canadian.’ Since then, $7.8 billion in contracts went to American corporations, Toronto Star

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In September, the Alberta Transition Council — a separatist organization led by Freedom Convoy lawyer Keith Wilson — released its 214-page blueprint for an independent Alberta, covering borders, currency, pensions, trade and basic government functions. Unlike the Alberta Prosperity Project’s much-mocked Value of Freedom, The Alberta Transition Plan maps a route to independence rather than just an end state.

Wilson’s apparent aim is to reassure voters who are on the fence that Alberta independence won’t actually change a whole lot in their daily lives. Throughout the text, the plan repeatedly defers the major changes entailed by creating a new country to future negotiations with the Canadian government, First Nations and/or the U.S., whose outcome it emphasizes cannot be predetermined.

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Perhaps even more important than what the plan includes is what it omits — namely, ambitions explicitly articulated by separatist movement leaders and existing UCP policies, both of which the Transition Council dismisses as beyond the scope of its proposals.

For each of the past five weeks, I’ve been examining one of the plan’s 28 chapters for the Forward Weekly newsletter. With permission, I’m reprinting each of them below in order of when they first appeared.

Health Care

The council’s starting point is simple: “For most patients, health care is already an Alberta service. A patient should therefore not need a new hospital, doctor or provincial health number simply because Alberta’s constitutional status changes.” The problem with this logic is that the funding is not an Alberta service. If Alberta left Canada, it would need to replace billions in federal health transfers.

This year, Alberta is expected to receive $7 billion through the Canada Health Transfer, covering almost one-fifth of the operational health-care spending in the province’s latest fiscal update. These specific figures go unmentioned in the council’s report, which is equally vague about how to make up for these funds.

It favours a “negotiated bridge” to keep some federal funding flowing temporarily, while warning Alberta must be ready if transfers end. But ready how? The plan does not say.

One possibility is more private coverage of the sort enabled by the UCP government’s Bill 11. No longer required to abide by the Canada Health Act, an independent Alberta could expand the range of procedures eligible for private coverage. That could create more opportunities for the wealthy and well-connected to jump the queue while the rest of us wait in increasingly overcrowded public hospitals.

Indigenous Rights

The Transition Plan promises that Indigenous Peoples’ rights would not change in an independent Alberta. The council acknowledges the difficulty of making good on this promise: First Nations’ treaty relationships are with the Crown and cannot simply be transferred from one government to another, meaning an independent Alberta would need new agreements with each of the province’s 48 First Nations.

Whatever each First Nation decides, creating a new international border through treaty lands would affect First Nations’ ability to exercise their Treaty rights, including hunting, trapping, fishing, and conducting ceremonies. “First Nations’ mobility therefore requires special treatment,” the council notes. It proposes negotiating an “Indigenous Mobility Protocol” regarding First Nations people’s ability to visit, conduct traditional practices, access reserves or settlements and have their ID documents recognized on both sides of the new border.

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The plan cites the 1794 Jay Treaty as a precedent for Indigenous mobility, even though Canadian courts have held that it is not in force in Canada and the federal government is still working toward a permanent solution to Indigenous cross-border mobility. The existing Canada–U.S. border has divided First Nations and disrupted treaty rights and cultural practices for generations, suggesting that prolonged negotiations over a new Alberta border would leave Indigenous communities bearing the consequences in the meantime.

The Transition Plan makes a very big assumption: First Nations will be cooperative negotiating partners with an independent Alberta. But any attempt at secession would have to address their rights, interests and territorial claims. With First Nations leaders unanimously opposed to it, First Nations have much more leverage than separatists seem to realize.

Citizenship and Immigration

A key assumption of the transition plan is that citizens of a newly independent Alberta would retain their Canadian citizenship and, as such, protections of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. The council notes that under the federal Citizenship Act, no provision exists that would remove Canadian citizenship rights from residents of a province that separates. But given that no province has ever successfully seceded from Confederation, the council acknowledges that Canadian citizenship could become a bargaining chip in negotiations with Canada.

Retaining Canadian citizenship is one question, but the separatist movement is much more focused on questions of who belongs in an independent Alberta. As it stands, Alberta influences Canadian immigration primarily by nominating economic migrants for permanent residency through the Alberta Advantage Immigration Program. (Alberta’s government, of course, wants to expand its immigration authority through five immigration referendum questions on the Oct. 19 ballot.)

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For permanent residents and people on work or study permits, the question is whether an independent Alberta could keep their immigration status intact while it assumes full control over citizenship, passports, visas and permits, refugee adjudication and border security. Given the scale of this undertaking, the Transition Council proposes the new country temporarily recognize existing Canadian immigration statuses and adopt Canadian visa and permit categories. “No one should lose their lawful status simply because Alberta’s constitutional status has changed,” the plan reads.

While the council notes that the “simplest transition approach would avoid requiring existing Alberta residents to go through a citizenship-application process,” day one legislation would outline “which residents automatically acquire Alberta citizenship.” The Transition Council is mum on what would happen to those who don’t acquire Alberta citizenship or have their Canadian permits expire during the transition period. Whether this process would at some point result in the mass deportations outlined in the Alberta Prosperity Project’s Value of Freedom plan is left to the reader’s imagination.

Natural Resources

One of the major motivations behind Alberta separatism is the perception that the Canadian federal government has placed onerous restrictions on Alberta’s ability to export oil and gas to international markets. This narrative persists even though oil and gas production levels have broken new records every year from 2021 to 2025.

Under the federalist status quo, provinces maintain control of natural resource production and regulation. That control is exercised in Alberta through bodies such as the Alberta Energy Regulator, the Alberta Utilities Commission and the Alberta Electric Systems Operator. Federal jurisdiction comes into the equation when resources or electricity are transported across provincial and international borders or resource extraction occurs on federal Crown land.

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The Alberta Transition Council claims that ensuring the continued flow of Alberta energy across international borders while maintaining the confidence of outside investors would be the primary challenge of an independent Alberta’s energy policy. Alberta would have to enter a transition agreement with the Canadian government to determine who would exercise jurisdiction over oil and gas facilities and pipelines that operate across provincial and international lines.

The U.S. is by far the largest export destination for Alberta oil and gas. The Transition Council recommends establishing agreements regarding export permits and customs duties with the U.S. prior to independence, “while also preserving routes through Canada and other markets.” This prioritization of market access to the U.S. might explain why separatist leaders have already been meeting with U.S. officials.

International Relations

The Transition Council notes that, as a Canadian province, Alberta already has a series of international trade relationships. What it lacks is “legal personality and institutional machinery,” a.k.a. everything that turns those contacts into diplomacy: international recognition, the authority to enter treaties, accepted travel documents and the ability to establish consulates and assist citizens abroad.

The diplomacy plan for an independent Alberta starts reasonably enough, beginning with a “lean” foreign affairs ministry initially focused on North America, establishing trade corridors and seeking recognition to expand its partnerships.

Identifying international allies, however, is a political calculation that is beyond the scope of the plan, though Jeff Rath, cofounder of the Alberta Prosperity Project, identified “like-minded” governments in Argentina, Hungary and Israel as countries he believes would recognize an independent Alberta. While his casual comments shouldn’t be taken as anything more than a political mood board, his choices reveal the movement’s affinity for right-wing populism — and, in the case of Israel, violent settler colonialism.

The Alberta Transition Plan, at least, acknowledges that Alberta’s “most consequential bilateral relationship” would be with the country it had just left, meaning the province’s current Ottawa overlords would remain central to its economic stability, even after separation.

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If you’re in Edmonton, tonight is my official book launch at the Aviary!

You can purchase an advance ticket here and order the book here.

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Student protests rock Paris as 7,000 detained, Adrienne Klasa and Leila Abboud, Financial Times (Oct. 9)

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Reporter Angela Amato also turned the interview into a news story on the book.

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I really enjoyed chatting with Max about what motivates the premier, her strategy for politics success and the hollow nature of Alberta grievance politics.

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Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith by Jeremy Appel (Dundurn Press Limited, Canada 2026). Excerpt reproduced with the permission of Dundurn Press Limited.

On July 14, 2020, New York Times columnist Bari Weiss publicly announced her departure from the newspaper in a fifteen-hundred-word open letter to publisher A.G. Sulzberger, decrying of a “culture of self-censorship” that was stifling journalistic inquiry. Weiss complained of co-workers who “publicly smear me as a liar and a bigot on Twitter with no fear that harassing me will be met with appropriate action,” claiming that the microblogging platform had become The Times’s “ultimate editor.” The result was an “illiberal environment,” in which “standing for principles … puts a target on your back.”

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In the wake of mass protests across the U.S. responding to the Minneapolis police’s murder of George Floyd, The Times ran a June 3, 2020, op-ed from Senator Tom Cotton headlined “Send in the troops,” which called for “an overwhelming show of force” from the National Guard to quell instances of rioting that he baselessly attributed to organized “cadres of left-wing radicals like antifa.” Editorial page editor James Bennet conceded that he hadn’t read Cotton’s column before publishing it and resigned; a clarification was affixed to the article two days later acknowledging a “rushed and flawed” editorial process that resulted in an article that shouldn’t have been published.1 For Weiss, this was an unacceptable abridgement of Senator Cotton’s free speech rights.

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Despite proclaiming herself a “centrist” in her departing letter, Weiss had been brought onto The Times masthead in 2017 specifically to bring more conservative perspectives into the paper in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise electoral victory. A married lesbian, opponent of transgender rights, and aggressive supporter of Israel, Weiss has long branded herself as a progressive liberal disillusioned with the excesses of left-wing campus activists, but the sum of her views amount to boilerplate New Right fusionism. “I know that there are some people in this room who don’t believe that my marriage should have been legal,” she said in a November 2023 speech to the conservative Federalist Society, a powerful judicial activist organization. “And that’s OK. Because we’re all Americans who want lower taxes.”2 With assistance from venture capitalists and tech oligarchs, Weiss launched The Free Press, a wildly successful newsletter on Substack, which amassed well over a million subscribers.

Danielle Smith had undoubtedly been paying close attention to Weiss’s departure from The Times in the months leading up to her announcement that she was quitting her radio show. “Unfortunately over the last few years far too many topics have become unchallengeable and the mob of political correctness thinks nothing of destroying a person’s career and reputation over some perceived slight, real or imagined,” Smith wrote on her Global News blog on January 11, 2021. In a National Post op-ed published a few days later, Smith explicitly cited Bennett’s resignation from The Times as proof that the “mob has become so powerful, it can dictate editorial policy to one of the oldest and most respected ‘newspapers of record’ on the planet.”This mob mentality was enabled by a “cabal of Tech Giants — Twitter, Facebook, Google and now Apple — [who] have colluded to deprive the public of balanced coverage on a whole range of issues.”3

Smith first announced her departure on the January 10, 2021, episode of the Danielle Smith Show. Within thirty seconds, she proclaimed herself a “genuine centrist” before acknowledging that she’s a “conservative activist.” “I make sure that I don’t succumb to my biases, so that I can change my mind on things, because I don’t have a problem having half my views be aligned with the left and half my views be aligned with the right,” said Smith.

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In a podcast interview with right-wing activist Angelo Isidorou, Smith recounted how her decision to leave mainstream radio was directly tied to institutional pushback from her Covid commentary. “I just had way too many guests and topics that were kiboshed, probably three dozen topics that I wasn’t allowed to talk about,” she said, referring to an “overt suppression campaign of any discussion” of scientifically unproven, alternative Covid remedies. Her Covid contrarianism set her on a collision course with Corus advertisers, leading to management writing her two letters of reprimand throughout 2020 warning her of tarnishing their brand.4 In Smith’s mind, she was providing a range of opinions on matters of great public importance; it was the public’s responsibility, not hers, to decide who is right or wrong.

This mentality, conservative journalist told me, speaks to Smith’s lack of “standards and boundaries” for whom to take seriously, contributing to her infamously “terrible information hygiene.” Without the guardrails, however minimal, of mainstream media, Smith would fall further down a conspiracy theory rabbit hole while maintaining mainstream legitimacy through her affiliations with the Calgary Herald, Fraser Institute, Alberta Enterprise Group, and the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

When she announced her departure from mainstream broadcast and social media, Smith announced that she was establishing a private social media account on Locals that was accessible only to paid subscribers, shielding her commentary from public scrutiny. The platform she chose as her new home was founded by failed liberal comedian turned right-wing influencer Dave Rubin, who was the opening act for right-wing self-help guru Jordan Peterson on the tour for his wildly successful 12 Rules for Life book. Rubin and Peterson were hailed by Bari Weiss in The New York Times as “renegades of the intellectual dark web”5 — a loose collection of reactionary public figures including podcaster Joe Rogan, conservative pundit Ben Shapiro, and anti-Muslim polemicist Sam Harris, united in their contempt for the politics of equity and inclusion.

Smith and Weiss share a talent for making the project of clinging to tradition sound edgy and subversive, branding themselves as courageous dissenters standing up to a censorious elite who are trying to prevent them from saying what everyone else is thinking. But rather than targeting economic elites, who are their biggest patrons, they speak of a cultural elite that is attempting to suppress their profound truths, whether it’s the purported immutability of biological sex or the supposed dangers of mRNA vaccines. , a University of Waterloo academic whose work focuses on conspiracy theories and the far-right, told me that this rhetoric puts figures like Smith and Weiss “in a position of both being a political victim, but also a political hero” to their followers. While Weiss’s dramatic exit from The New York Times set in motion events that would lead to her assuming the editor-in-chief role at CBS News in 2025, Smith parlayed her departure from Corus into becoming premier of Alberta in 2022.

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We talk about Smith’s career trajectory, populism and the New Authoritarianism, pandemic politics, separatism and more.

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Book Events

• Edmonton: Book launch at the Aviary - Oct. 13

• Calgary: Alberta Advantage live recording, followed by book signing and social - Nov. 6

• Toronto: TBD.

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Alberta’s ruling UCP is considering debating policy resolutions calling for Alberta independence, restrictions on abortion and a transgender bathroom ban at its forthcoming convention in November, according to screenshots of an online dashboard for party members obtained by The Orchard.

Other potential resolutions include banning Indigenous land acknowledgements from public events, creating a Vaccine Injury Support Program and restricting municipalities from imposing “permanent water or utility restrictions.”

From Sept. 19 to Sept. 25, party members were asked to rank their preferences for proposed policies that will make it to the floor of this year’s annual general meeting in Calgary on a scale from -4 to +4.

was the first to report that a policy resolution for the party to “pursue a lawful process to secure Alberta’s independence from Canada as a sovereign state” was part of the ranking process.

Screenshots obtained by this newsletter show other contentious policy resolutions being ranked by party members.

These proposals were first reported by UCP-friendly news site the Western Standard, but will likely be news to readers of this newsletter.

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The screenshots were provided by TikToker Kit Rose (@KitsPath), a former journalist who found a link to the dashboard posted to a public Facebook page for UCP members, entitled “The Road to the UCP AGM: Citizens Making Alberta Better,”

The images include text of select resolutions and do not indicate what ranking each resolution received.

Rose, who’s trans, was particularly concerned about a proposed resolution to segregate trans women from female washrooms and change rooms.

The proposal calls on the party to “adopt policies that protect the safety and privacy of women and girls in schools and public facilities (including washrooms and change areas) and promote consistent application across municipalities and school jurisdictions.”

It was submitted by Dean O’Callaghan, who appears to be a party member from Lloydminster.

While the resolution text itself cites washrooms and change rooms as examples of the facilities it wants to ban trans women from, its rationale makes it clear that they are the proposal’s primary target.

“Washrooms and changerooms [sic] in public facilities are vulnerable spaces, and to ensure the comfort and safety of all biological women and girls we need these spaces protected,” reads the rationale.

Rather than outright banning trans women from female change rooms and bathrooms, the rationale suggests possibly creating separate “single-occupancy lockable stalls, and separate private [changing] areas.”

It’s possible that none of these proposals will make it to the AGM floor in November, or that some will be amended before being approved, but some of the most contentious are extensions of policies already approved by the party membership in previous years.

The party passed far more wide-reaching anti-trans resolutions at its 2024 convention in Red Deer to ban trans women from “exclusively female spaces and categories” and defund gender affirming care, both of which passed with overwhelming support.

At last year’s AGM in Edmonton, party members voted in favour of a resolution calling for Premier Danielle Smith to ban “public funding for third-trimester abortions, except in cases where the physical health of the mother is at serious risk.”

This year, at least some members are seeking to go a step further, despite last year’s policy not having been implemented.

A proposed resolution calls on the province to defund second and third-trimester abortions, with the same caveats as the 2025 resolution.

“This resolution does not restrict access to second or third-trimester abortions, but establishes a responsible, values-based funding policy for medically necessary cases,” the resolution’s rationale reads.

There’s also a resolution to provide “fair, timely and accessible financial assistance and support to individuals who experience serious adverse events following provincially recommended or government-administered vaccinations.”

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No doubt, this proposal was inspired by Niagara West Conservative MP Dean Allison’s unsanctioned four-day hearing into alleged vaccine injuries on Parliament Hill, which included testimony from U.S. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson.

The federal government already offers restitution for the rare instances of people who have suffered “serious or permanent injury" from vaccines. The Vaccine Injury Support Program paid out $21 million to 252 approved claimants from June 2021 to November 2025.

According to Health Canada, of 105 million Covid-19 vaccine doses that were given out across Canada from 2020 to 2023, there were 11,072 serious adverse reactions, representing 0.011% of all doses.

Another resolution seeks to “limit the ability for municipalities to impose permanent water or utility restrictions,” which if approved and implemented would represent another instance of the provincial government overriding the will of local elected bodies.

Some other proposed resolutions could be gleaned by perusing “The Road to the UCP AGM” Facebook page, where members encouraged each other to rank various proposals a certain way.

Bonnie Meikle, one of the page’s administrators, urged members to rank a resolution calling for the provincial government to prohibit Indigenous land acknowledgements by “all publicly funded institutions, agencies, and entities” as +4.

“Land Acknowledgements are not harmless. It's a trojan horse to abolish private property,” wrote Meikle.

In another post, she urged party members to rank as -4 a resolution calling for the party to open its membership to permanent residents, which would reverse a resolution from last year to only permit citizens to become UCP members.

“With the vast number of immigrants we have now it's imperative that only citizens have access to influencing the governing Party of Alberta [sic], and retain the values that created it,” explained Meikle.

UCP director of communications Dave Prisco didn’t acknowledge a request for comment.

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This piece was updated to reflect that the resolution proposals mentioned were first reported by the Western Standard.

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If you appreciate my reporting on Alberta politics, you’re going to want to read my news book, Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith, which comes out a week from today.

It tells the story of the Alberta premier’s ascent, the nefarious forces that brought her to power and the threat she represents, not just to Alberta but Canada.

I think you should preorder it, which will contribute to its first-week sales numbers and hopefully place it on bestseller lists. I’m more than a bit biased here, so don’t just take my word for it.

Dark Phoenix has received high praise from several journalists, authors and artists whom I greatly respect.

Carmen Celestini, author of God’s Angry Men:

Understanding the path Danielle Smith took to the helm of Alberta politics provides an understanding to this moment in time in Canada’s political landscape. Canadians wanting to understand the politicizing of grievances in Alberta owe a debt to Appel for this in depth understanding of the political movements that led to the political division in the province, and the charming manipulation of Smith to lead the charge.

Mark Lisac, author of The Klein Revolution and The Carbon Eaters:

Dark Phoenix presents a well-researched portrait that will likely become the standard account for anyone curious about Danielle Smith’s career to date.

Jeet Heer, national affairs correspondent for The Nation and host of The Time of Monsters podcast:

In an age of authoritarian populism, Danielle Smith has emerged as an unsettling political superstar. Smith is resilient, dynamic, adaptive, media-savvy as she sells a politics of reactionary nostalgia in the service of the powerful. She is reshaping not just Alberta but Canada. Jeremy Appel’s incisive and crisply-written biography, drawing on deep reporting and research, is essential reading for understanding both Smith’s appeal and the dark future she is promoting.

Dan Boeckner, musician in Wolf Parade:

Not just a biography, but an incredibly detailed overview of an emergent form of authoritarian anti-politics wherein the candidate subscribes to an ideology of nothing except the acquisition of power for powers sake. Jeremy Appel is one of the best journalists working in Canada today. A necessary voice.

You can preorder Dark Phoenix from the publisher or to your local independent bookstore here. Amazon and Indigo both have it on sale, if that’s your thing.

I’ve also got two book events lined up that I’d love to see you at!

If you’re in Edmonton, you’re welcome to come to my Oct. 13 book launch at the Aviary, where I’ll be in conversation with my friend Dani Paradis.

And if you’re in Calgary, I’ll be hosting a just-announced free event at High Line Brewing on Nov. 6 at 7:30 p.m., with my pals at the Alberta Advantage podcast. There will be a live podcast recording, followed by a book signing and social.

I should have something lined up for Toronto in early 2027. Stay tuned, Torontonian readers!

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Nora Loreto

Quebec's Election with Nora Loreto (Part 1)

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25 days ago · 10 likes · 3 comments · Nora Loreto and Jeremy Appel

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In the Toronto Star, I argue that the most dangerous part of Alberta’s series of October referendums isn’t the question on whether to have a future binding referendum on independence; it’s the five questions on restricting immigration, which are likely to pass and will have a material impact on some of the most vulnerable Albertans.

For Forward Weekly, I looked at the Alberta Transition Council’s plans for the oil and gas industry in an independent Alberta.

Edmonton and Calgary Book Events

My new book, Dark Phoenix: The Rise, Fall, and Re-emergence of Danielle Smith, comes out in a week.

I’ll be celebrating its release at the Aviary in Edmonton alongside my friend Dani Paradis on Oct. 13. Tickets are $25 in advance/$30 at the door and include a copy of the book.

Buy a book launch ticket

I’ll also be in Calgary next month for a very special event at High Line Brewing with my friends at Alberta Advantage. We’ll be doing a live podcast recording, followed by a book signing and social. The event starts at 7:30 p.m. and is free.

If you live elsewhere or can’t make it to either event, please consider preordering the book, which will help contribute to first week sales, signalling to media and booksellers that this is a book worth promoting.

I recommend shopping local, but Amazon and Indigo do have 25% off sales for preorders.

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Story of the Week

DULF Wins Constitutional Challenge, Judge Applauds Their Work, Michelle Gamage, The Tyee (Sept. 29)

[Eris] Nyx and [Jeremy] Kalicum argued that the law that convicted them both of three counts of trafficking methamphetamine, cocaine and heroin was unconstitutional.

Because the pair had been selling drugs to compassion club members to reduce harms and fatalities caused by the unregulated drug supply, DULF’s lawyers Tim Dickson, Stephanie Dickson and Kaelan Unrau contended that shutting down the club violated Section 7 and Section 15 of its members’ Charter rights.

[Justice Catherine] Murray delivered a judgment today that aligned with this argument.

Murray agreed that a non-medicalized safer supply program is urgently needed to save lives and found that DULF had been reducing the harms associated with the toxic drug crisis while having no negative impact on the community or public safety.

She also agreed there was no way for a compassion club or non-medical safer supply program to source legal drugs and no legally and practically available safety valves in the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act to support such a program.

She also said Section 5(2) of the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act was unconstitutional because it prevented a non-medicalized safer supply program from operating during the ongoing toxic drug crisis.

This infringed on DULF compassion club members’ rights to life, liberty and security of the person and their right to be treated equally under the law, which are guaranteed under Sections 7 and 15 of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

“It’s people like you who make a difference,” Murray told Nyx and Kalicum. “And you just did. So go out and do great things. I have no doubt that you will.”

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Alberta

Alberta moves forward with Calgary-Edmonton high-speed rail plan, Daniel Gonzalez, Calgary Herald (Sept. 28)

Victim in Edmonton Corn Maze stabbing tried to recruit accused to Nazi group, trial hears, Jonny Wakefield, Edmonton Journal (Sept. 29)

50-storey towers, new security approach part of developer’s plans for Edmonton City Centre, Madeline Cummings, CBC News (Sept. 29)

Data centre campus proposed in northeast Edmonton, Stephanie Swensrude, Taproot Edmonton (Sept. 30)

We must call Alberta separation what it is, Patrick Lennox, Globe and Mail (Sept. 30)

UCP MLA says he’s voted in favour of Alberta holding binding referendum on independence, Lina Elsaadi, CBC News (Sept. 30)

Ottawa designates West Coast pipeline a project of national interest, Emma Graney, Marieke Walsh and Jeffrey Jones, Globe and Mail (Oct. 1)

Alberta Is Going Backwards On Reconciliation, Kelly Allard, Medicine Hat Owl (Oct. 1)

Former deans of medicine call on Ottawa to intervene in Alberta’s dual-practice health care model, Alanna Smith, Globe and Mail (Oct. 1)

It’s the biggest Alberta separatist account on the internet. It has links to a movement leader, Alex Boyd and Jeff Yates, CBC News (Oct. 2)

Elephant in the room, Carrie Tait, Grant Robertson and Nathan VanderKlippe, Globe and Mail (Oct. 3)

Canada

Toronto mayoral candidate Bradford’s campaign appears to have breached its own privacy policy, Rory White, Canada’s National Observer (Sept. 28)

Carney’s Push to Fund Industry Imperils Canada’s Nature Promises, Sarah Cox, The Tyee (Sept. 28)

Nora Loreto

Turning a peaceful movement violent

The international solidarity movement against Israel’s genocide has never called for synagogues to be shot as a tactic to pressure Israel to stop its genocide…

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25 days ago · 34 likes · 12 comments · Nora Loreto

How Pro-Israel Voices Warped The Belleville Shooting Narrative, Alex Cosh, The Maple (Sept. 29)

Fake AI columnist dupes Canadian press to target Moroccan dissidents, and a Turkish ‘middleman’, Ilker Sezer, Türkiye Today (Sept. 29)

The Walrus

How St-Pierre Plamondon Learned to Stop Worrying and Blame Immigrants

(Graham Hughes, Christopher Katsarov) The Canadian Press / Ana Luisa O.J…

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25 days ago · 20 likes · The Walrus

Saskatchewan mayor stepping down now that ‘Queen of Canada’ cult is gone, Halyna Mihalik, CBC News (Sept. 30)

Indigenous groups given just two months to consult on pipeline project designation, Alessia Passafiume, Canadian Press (Oct. 1)

Former soldier exposes how Canadian white supremacist group recruits members, Eric Szeto, Jordan Pearson, Christian Paas-Lang and Ivan Angelovski, CBC Investigates (Oct. 1)

U.S.

US datacenter discharged large amounts of pollution for almost a year with no permits, Evan Simon, Floodlight (Oct. 1)

Florida weighs ditching property taxes and sticking Canadians with the bill, John Paul Tasker, CBC News (Oct. 4)

World

Burkina Faso opens $19 million gold refinery as Traoré pushes to keep mining wealth at home, Adekunle Agbetiloye, Business Insider (Sept. 29)

Bolivia arrests top prosecutor and 13 others accused by US of protecting drug traffickers, Associated Press (Oct. 1)

After Trump’s Venezuelan oil deal, those living on polluted lake in oil country wait for change, Cody Weddle, CBC News (Oct. 3)

Middle East

More than 100 Israelis go on rampage in Palestinian town, James Shotter, Financial Times (Sept. 29)

Drop Site News

Massacre at Minab: The School That Became a Grave

On the morning of Saturday, February 28, people across Iran began their day like any other. It was one week into the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, and people were prep…

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24 days ago · 478 likes · 22 comments · Jeremy Scahill, Murtaza Hussain, and Reza Sayah

U.S. ends ISIS-fighting mission in Iraq as regional security fears mount, Alexander Smith and Helen Graham, NBC News (Sept. 30)

Netanyahu is flying freely over Canada as his international arrest warrant remains in place, Evan Dyer, CBC News (Oct. 3)

The Grayzone

'Last American hostage in Gaza' Edan Alexander was not US citizen, source says

The Trump administration took the unusual step of negotiating directly for the release of captive IDF soldier Edan Alexander on the grounds that he was a dual American-Israeli citizen. But a source who’s been in contact with his family says he was not a US citizen at all. The Grayzone has confirmed Alexander is a client of elite immigration lawyers…

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20 days ago · 97 likes · 1 comment · The Grayzone

Tech

Surveillance Company Tells Cops It Wants to Add Facial Recognition to Flock Cameras, Jason Koebler, 404 Media (Sept. 29)

How Cities Are Forced to Funnel License Plate Data to a Massive Federal Surveillance Program, Jason Koebler, 404 Media (Sept. 30)

Culture

The Bulwark

The Daily Wire Is Quietly Shooting a Pro-ICE Movie. We Got the Script.

BEN SHAPIRO AND THE DAILY WIRE are desperate to crack Hollywood. But Shapiro’s most recent foray into film, the anti-Muslim Run Hide Fight: Infidels, was hardly The Odyssey. Sitting at a meager 20 percent among reviewers on Rotten Tomatoes, the movie has inspired Shapiro’s fan…

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23 days ago · 619 likes · 150 comments · Will Sommer